Monday, December 28, 2009

Climate Post du Jour

Watts Up With That? explains why "simple physics" explanations don't work when discussing global warming climate change.

I keep reading statements in various places about how it is indisputable “simple physics” that if we increase amount of atmospheric CO2, it will inevitably warm the planet.

"Simple" physics is simple. Climate isn't.

The climate is comprised of five major subsystems — atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. All of these subsystems are imperfectly understood. Each of these subsystems has its own known and unknown internal and external forcings, feedbacks, resonances, and cyclical variations. In addition, each subsystem affects all of the other subsystems through a variety of known and unknown forcings and feedbacks.

Then there is the problem of scale. Climate has crucially important processes at physical scales from the molecular to the planetary, and at temporal scales from milliseconds to millennia.

As a result of this almost unimaginable complexity, simple physics is simply inadequate to predict the effect of a change in one of the hundreds and hundreds of things that affect the climate

Go read to learn about flow systems and Constructal Law.

Then come back and tell me this is all settled science. So I can laugh at you.

Ba haaa haaa haa. Bob, you may want to click on that link.

Or not.

In August, CPC forecast that most of the US would have above normal temperatures from October through December, and perhaps more importantly did did not predict that any areas would have below normal temperatures.

October turned out to be the third coldest on record and December is headed in the same direction.

Things aren't looking much different for Europe.

On the other side of the pond, The Met Office forecast 2010 to be the warmest year ever, as they last did in 2007. On cue, the weather turned bitter cold immediately after the forecast and it appears that the unusally cold weather will continue at least through mid-January. As in 2007, the Met office 2010 forecast is not getting off to a good start.

Now's when Bob tells us how MILD it's been by him. Go ahead. Do it again. That never gets old.

Extra lol, from the comments over there :

Pennsylvania, see the lower-left spot of warming, stands right out. Where are they getting their readings?

See map of Pennsylvania. It looks like the spot is at Altoona, not much else around. What could be causing warming at Altoona?

What is at Altoona? Penn State Altoona. That’s right, Michael Mann’s Penn State, Altoona campus

They've got a serious warming problem going on in that one spot of Pennsylvania. Perhaps Al Gore should make a visit?